it is interesting to note that doomsdayers and soothesayers invariably try and predict the fall of a particular service, or phenomenon. They would have recieved a much needed moral boost with them predicting the dot com bust.
I guess the bust was a case of economics and chaos, and that when the two come together, they are like oil and water. You cannot hope to implement a “business plan” on a system that is built from chaos, unless in the chaotic system, there is a form of semblance to sanity. Amazon.com a surviver, but why? because they streamlined the web within the portal. all links were inside the portal to various other parts, selling, cross selling and upselling. However, any other portal needed 1. information from somwhere else, revenues from somewhere else, and found it difficult to keep people on the site because links were leading to : somewhere else.
Wiki’s and blogs however are a system that require no investment, no advertising, and there is no “economic” model based on this.I would relate this to iPods’ disruptive innovation.
More importantly, wiki’s and blogs do not try and tame chaos, they are chaos as well. a butterfly flapping its wing sets off a ripple effect. bloggers start writing, and posting. millions of posts in all directions.
It cannot die.
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